Black Friday traditionally marks one of the biggest retail events of the year, but new data suggests shoppers may be more cautious heading into the 2025 holiday season.
According to a Deloitte survey, consumers plan to spend an average of $622 between November 27 and December 1 — a 4% decline from last year. The pullback reflects the impact of persistent inflation, a higher overall cost of living, and ongoing financial pressures affecting households across income levels.
Early Shopping and Strategic Spending
While the Black Friday–Cyber Monday window is still viewed as the unofficial start of holiday shopping, many consumers began earlier this year. Retail events like Amazon Prime Day encouraged early buying, and some households hoped to avoid potential price increases linked to recent tariff changes.
But whether they shop early or during Thanksgiving week, buyers are more intentional. Retail analysts note that consumers are “stacking” savings — combining sales pricing with promo codes, coupons, and cash-back offers — to stretch their dollars further.
“They are using every tool they can to protect those budgets,” said Stephanie Carls, a retail insights expert at RetailMeNot, for CNBC.
Financial Strain Shapes Holiday Decisions
Despite solid headline economic growth, the financial picture for many Americans remains strained. Wage gains have not consistently kept up with inflation, and debt pressures have grown across income brackets. As a result, many households are making difficult choices about holiday spending.
Deloitte’s research shows:
- 60% of shoppers already have items in their carts for Thanksgiving week purchases
- 38% plan to buy only if items are discounted at 50% off or more
“Value continues to be the centerpiece of the holiday season,” noted Brian McCarthy, retail strategy leader at Deloitte Consulting.
Additional data from LendingTree underscores similar trends: although 64% of Americans expect to shop on Black Friday, nearly 40% say they will spend less this year due to higher prices.
What This Means for the Season Ahead
Although holiday shopping remains a key part of consumer activity, this year’s trends suggest a more cautious, value-driven approach. Shoppers are spreading out purchases, prioritizing discounts, and using more tools to stretch their budgets as economic pressures persist.
For investors and financial observers, these patterns offer insight into broader consumer sentiment — an important indicator for retail performance and economic momentum heading into year-end.
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