The Monthly Market Wrap provides an insightful analysis of the major index returns, treasury yields, fixed income performance, and other key economic indicators in April 2024. It also delves into housing market data and the performance of gold, oil and gas.
Key Stock Market Index Performance
Equities endured a tough April following three straight months of gains. The S&P 500 fell 4.1% in its first monthly decline of 2024, the NASDAQ sank 4.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 4.9%.
Emerging Markets was the only index we track to post a positive gain in April.
The Russell 2000 was the worst performer of the month, plummeting 7%.
Only the Utilities sector was positive in April. Of the remaining ten sectors, Real Estate was the worst-performing sector, sinking 8.5%, followed by Technology and Health Care, which fell 5.8% and 5%, respectively.
Economic Data
Employment
March’s unemployment rate fell to 3.8% as the labor force participation rate increased to 62.7%. According to nonfarm payroll data, 303,000 new jobs were added in March, marking the first month of US job gains since May 2023 and surpassing estimates that ranged from 150,000 to 250,000.
Inflation vs. Fed Funds Rate
US Inflation has now hovered in the 3-4 percent range for the last nine months, with March’s figure coming in at 3.48%. This was also the second consecutive monthly increase for year-over-year inflation.
The Core Inflation rate for March was 3.80%, which continues to sit just below 4%.
The monthly US Consumer Price Index rose 0.38% in March, and US Personal Spending’s month-over-month increase of 0.84% was the highest in 14 months.
The Federal Reserve held its key Fed Funds Rate at 5.50% at its May 1st, 2024 meeting, marking the sixth consecutive meeting in which the Fed left rates unchanged.
Housing Prices and Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates increased slightly. The 15-year mortgage rate rose to 6.44% as of April 25th, and the 30-year mortgage rate surpassed 7% for the first time since December 2023, to 7.17%.
Housing demand was mixed:
- New single-family home sales surged 8.8% month-over-month.
- Existing home sales sank 4.3% month-over-month.
Despite the slip in demand for existing homes during March, a strong month in February pushed the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes up 2.5% in March to $393,500.
Gold Prices
The price of Gold advanced another 5.8% in April, to $2,343.10 per ounce as of April 26th amid geopolitical tensions, persistent inflation, a weakening dollar, and increased purchasing of the precious metal by central banks.
Gold briefly topped $2,400 per ounce on April 12th.
Oil & Gas Prices
Crude oil prices increased slightly in April; the price of WTI ended April at $84.26 per barrel while Brent inched up to $88.44. Despite the muted activity in crude oil, the average price of gas increased 14 cents to $3.78 per gallon.
Fixed Income
Yields on long-term Treasury bonds rose significantly in April. The 5-year Treasury note increased 51 basis points, the most of any duration on the curve. The 2-year, 3-year, 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year all increased by at least 45 basis points, while there was little activity on the shorter end of the curve.
Bond fund performance slumped as a result of the higher yields. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) slipped 6.5%, the sharpest decline of any bond fund we track in the month.